The battle of Ma'rib ... a blow that could completely change the dynamic of the conflict in Yemen
English - Sunday 21 February 2021 الساعة 04:42 pm
Aden, NewsYemen, Sayyaf Gharabani:
The renewed conflict broke out in Marib, eastern Yemen, in early February, after the Houthis pressured the governorate and launched attacks of a strategic nature from several sides, after months of stalemate on the front lines.
The Houthis pushed large numbers of fighters and launched massive attacks and were able to advance west and north of the city after they took control of the "Al-Zour" area on the western part of the Ma'rib Dam, and mountainous hills overlooking supply lines to several fronts.
An attack launched by Houthi fighters, across large areas, was able to control the strategic camp of Coufal, in addition to the "Kasara" area, which put the government forces in a shaky defensive position.
On the southern side, the group pushed hundreds of its members towards the "Jabal Murad" directorate and seized some sites for hours, before being forced to retreat by the desperate defense of tribesmen and air strikes.
During the recent battles, the Houthi militants tried to cut off supply lines in the Al-Abdiya district, about 50 km south of Ma'rib, in preparation for their downfall, in conjunction with other attacks they carried out in the north and west with the aim of enforcing the siege on the city.
The Houthis benefited from the control of the Islah Party, the Yemeni branch of the Brotherhood, over the decision of the Hadi government, as it directed a large part of the latter's military capabilities towards southern Yemen, specifically towards Abyan, Shabwa and Taiz, which greatly weakened the ability to defend Marib and before it, Al-Jawf.
Tribes ... a last line of defense for Marib
So far, the desperate defense of the local tribes and with air support from the Arab coalition fighters has succeeded in preventing the Houthis from marching towards the city of Marib, the governorate center, and the oil fields to the east.
The Murad tribe fighters were able to rearrange their defensive lines after the legitimate forces lost the "Mahlia" and "Rahba" districts, and the rugged terrain in the "Murad Mountains" gave them a great advantage. That is, a priority of significance against the fighters of the Murad tribe fighting on their soil.
To compensate for this, the Houthis turned to more military pressure on the western and northern sides of Marib, where there were military forces dominated by the Islah party, and they collapsed with the first attack, which put Houthi forces close to the city.
Simultaneously, the Houthis expanded the attacks on Saudi sites, motivated by pressure on Riyadh to stop the air strikes and deprive the Yemeni forces in Marib of air cover, and these Houthi calculations prompted the Arab coalition to intensify raids to limit the pace of their advance in vital sites around Marib.
Radically upset the balance of control
Many go to link the recent military move towards Marib, with the Houthis ’desire to test the new era in Washington and examine its strengths and weaknesses in order to invest them in a race against time to obtain new points before any new international approach to stop the war and go to negotiations.
However, the facts on the ground indicate that Al-Houthi seeks to control Marib, as it is the last stronghold of the government in northern Yemen, and the main headquarters of the Ministry of Defense, in addition to its enjoyment of oil and gas wealth, as one of the most important governorates of the country.
While analysts say that the escalation of the conflict in recent weeks indicates that its parties are seeking to improve their conditions on the ground before any talks, this hypothesis is not included in the Houthi calculations, at least, since controlling Marib would be a more valuable prize for him than any political settlement that might have occurred. Get it, in the words of an analyst at the International Crisis Group.
And if the influential players in the Yemeni file are seeking negotiations on an agreement that creates a coalition government that is not controlled by the Houthis, it is not at all clear that the Houthi push to tighten control over northern Yemen will lead to these goals.
It will be the fall of Ma'rib; The location of many oil wells and gas fields will deal a heavy blow to the government of interim President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi and its backers, while it will allow the Houthis to change the dynamic of the entire conflict.
The Houthi group is counting on the battle of Marib to cause a dangerous revolution in the balance of field control and control of oil and gas sources in Yemen, and to end the last presence of the Hadi government on the northern part of the Yemeni map, with a knockout.
Employing military gains (against) the talks
In the field; It must be recalled that the Houthis have been waging a campaign to control Marib for more than a year, except that it has intensified in the last two weeks, while they continue to fight vigorously to this day with the aim of achieving field military progress and controlling the rest of the areas in the oil governorate.
In recent months, the Iranian-backed group was able to control vital areas adjacent to Marib, and later it made a new advance towards the city after battles with government forces that led to hundreds of deaths on both sides.
The Houthi attacks against Marib, located 150 km east of Sanaa, intensified as the administration of the new US President Joe Biden withdrew from his predecessor Donald Trump's decision to classify them as a terrorist organization, a step that gave the group the courage to be less inclined to political negotiations.
The battle for control of Marib includes, now, a wide range of military confrontation that extends in the form of an arc, from the southwest to the north, as the Houthis doubled their ability to pressure Marib from the Al-Jawf desert, after the downfall of the city of "Al-Hazm", the provincial capital.
The Houthi group is trying to make the most of the military failure of the Hadi government, after six years of war, and to obtain the largest amount of field gains to employ it (against) any endeavors for a comprehensive political solution.
