International crises: "background negotiations" with the Houthis will lead to the collapse of Yemen
English - Sunday 01 January 2023 الساعة 03:09 pm
Aden, NewsYemen:
The International Crisis Group believes that the background negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi militia may lead to a comprehensive collapse of the situation in Yemen.
In a recent report, International Crisis said that the "background" talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could end Yemen in a state of total collapse.
The report added that negotiations between the two parties through back channels will not stop the war that has been going on for nearly eight years, but rather may lead to a comprehensive collapse of the situation and usher in a chaotic phase of renewed fighting.
He said that any agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis might convince the latter (Houthis) of their ability to avoid negotiations with the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, which would negatively affect many issues, foremost of which is the prospects for a comprehensive national dialogue between all factions in the Yemeni arena.
He believed that such talks might encourage the Houthis to avoid engaging in comprehensive negotiations with the rest of the Yemeni parties, especially the Presidential Leadership Council, which would lead to a new, chaotic phase of the fighting that would be more fierce.
He stressed that the Houthi-Saudi track represents a potential impasse for the United Nations and other international players seeking to end the Yemen war.
The International Crisis Group stressed that "the United Nations must start laying the foundations for negotiations that include all parties to the conflict, as this is the right time."
The report stated: "If the United Nations were to start discussions aimed at a comprehensive political settlement, it is likely to find great acceptance, especially since the Yemeni anti-Houthi factions are desperate from the Houthi-Saudi negotiations from which they were excluded."
He said that the international organization faces two main challenges: ensuring the continuation of talks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia while discouraging the rebels with the idea that they can avoid dialogue with their opponents, and persuading the Houthis to return to UN-sponsored talks before the Presidential Leadership Council collapses or unites behind a return to war.
The "International Crisis" indicated that the Houthis use a bait-and-switch strategy: they participate in the United Nations mediation efforts while constantly raising demands and using the threat of returning to war as a means of pressure.
It pointed out that this strategy succeeded in reopening Sanaa airport and lifting the restrictions imposed on the port of Hodeidah, without giving the Houthis anything substantial to their rivals (the Yemeni government).
It noted that the Houthi militia is now seeking to obtain a stable income through salary payments, adding: "If they (the Houthis) get what they want - fuel shipments, more flights, and an influx of oil revenues into their areas - it is not clear what they will gain next from participating." in national talks about a political settlement.
The report suggested that they would seek more concessions from the Saudis in order to achieve their vision of "peace".
