Vienna - Muscat - Riyadh .. The path of the political solution in Yemen
English - Sunday 11 April 2021 الساعة 09:54 am
NewsYemen, Written by / Hussam Radman
Is it conceivable for us to accomplish discussions in a matter of a few days, which took many years in Geneva? If the answer is no, then the goal of current US diplomacy will not be an immediate return to a comprehensive agreement with Tehran, but rather to create optimal conditions for this return.
The recent American moves can only be understood by looking at the balances inside Iran and the imminent political transition that the country is preparing for that may reformulate the regime's shape and its strategic approach: whether at the level of the presidential elections next June, or at the level of the position of the supreme leader, who is preparing to leave the world.
And at this delicate moment, Washington cannot continue the policy of "maximum pressure" to nourish the fortunes of the Revolutionary Guard and help it more in seizing power, thus accelerating the regime's path towards acquiring nuclear weapons and exploding the regional situation in a more reckless manner, which in the end are trends that will complicate more than the possibility of returning to The table after the upcoming June, and in the event that it results in an armed confrontation, it will disrupt the American strategy towards reducing its military presence and a gradual withdrawal from the Middle East.
In this context, it seems logical that our consultations will produce tangible results that tempt the two parties to continue in the same manner, and there are two circumstantial factors that favor this trend; First, it is the only way to adjust the Iranian balance of power and bring the interests of Khamenei and the moderates closer to the expense of the Revolutionary Guards and the hardliners.
Secondly, this negotiating round was preceded by positive messages in Yemen that conveyed the seriousness of the two parties: Tehran pushed the Houthis to accept the negotiation and reduce the military attack on Marib, in exchange for Riyadh's declaration and the legitimacy of a new initiative sponsored by the United States that recycles the terms of the "joint declaration" submitted by Griffiths two years ago, with some changes.
The Muscat talks came as an appendix part of a "panoramic approach" that aims mainly to bridge the negotiating gap with Tehran .. Therefore, the future of a political solution in Yemen remains dependent on either our diplomatic success or the ability of the Revolutionary Guard to impose its extremist approach and blow up the American diplomatic path whenever possible the opportunity.
As for the Houthis, they are adopting a foggy position that allows them to adapt in the future to both tracks - with the group's hawks preferring the path of the Revolutionary Guard; On the one hand, the Houthi militia keeps the door ajar before the American movement, but without engaging in any serious peace path with the Yemenis .. On the other hand, it continues to escalate the field, but at a less severe level that does not attract the attention of the international community and does not disturb the nights of diplomatic humanity in us.
Faced with this new regional dynamic, the traditional question arises about the Arabs ’options regarding the nuclear file, and about the Arab coalition’s options regarding Yemen?
Unfortunately, signs of military and political truce with Al-Houthi are always counterproductive in the camp of legitimacy. The first effects of this were evident in the armed confrontations in Abyan and Shabwa.
Unlike Houthi and his regional sponsor, the two parties to the settlement in the south (the transitional and legitimate ones) do not have the ability to influence Washington, and the desire to improve their negotiating position in any future settlement - even if it is just a mirage - makes them inclined to bite off each other's share instead of enhancing their political opportunities in confronting the Houthis.
The "Muscat-Vienna" path may be the beginning of another cycle of conflict from which Iran benefits by calming its hostile activity in Yemen, just as it benefited from raising its level during the last stage ..
There is no room for changing this dynamic except by completing the "Riyadh Agreement" and making it the cornerstone of the peace building process in Yemen. This requires greater rationality on the part of the transitional council, greater responsibility on the part of Hadi and reform, and exceptional vigilance on the part of Saudi Arabia.
* From the author's Facebook page.
