Yemeni "legitimacy" coma: those who dismantled the Republican Guard!
English - Wednesday 04 March 2020 الساعة 11:23 am
Aden, newsyemen
In each of the phases extending since the succession of Abd Rabbo Mansour to Ali Abdullah Saleh in February 2012, "legitimacy" has demonstrated great weakness in all political, military and state affairs areas.
It is no longer a secret that the Houthis are now in control of Al-Jawf Governorate, after they have expanded in all its phases. In order to achieve their goal, they needed several months, in order to encircle the homes of the governor of Al-Jawf, one of the sheikhs of the region, and the homes of those close to him. In light of the mediations, it was decided not to harm these homes, provided that there is a transfer of power in Al-Jawf from the Yemeni grouping of Islah to the Houthis who call themselves "Ansar Allah".
This important development represented in the Houthi takeover of Al-Jawf does not mean that Marib, which is on the borders of Al-Jawf, will fall tomorrow. Such a possibility is likely to occur within a month, two months, or a little more, if things remain the same. That is, if the “legitimacy” headed by the transitional president Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi remains in a coma.
The developments witnessed in the past few months, including the Houthis' progress on Nehm front, then to Al-Jawf, reveal a deficit that legitimacy suffers from for a long time.
In order to seek to know what after Al-Jouf, the governorate that has strategic importance due to the common borders with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and what is reported about the presence of underground wealth, it is necessary to return a little back. The Houthis' expansion since they invaded Amran Governorate, the stronghold of the Al-Ahmar leaders, did not stop, except after the "Al-Hazm Storm " that started in March of 2015.
After Amran, which was controlled by "Ansar Allah" in the summer of 2014, they advanced in the direction of Sana'a, which fell in their hands on the twenty-first of September 2014. After that, they continued their movement towards the middle and reached Aden. Where the “Arab alliance” came to prevent the Houthis from controlling all of Yemen, including the Bab al-Mandab, otherwise Iran would have achieved its dream of encircling the Arabian Peninsula from all sides and along the Yemeni-Saudi border.
In each of the phases extending since the succession of Abd Rabbo Mansour, legitimacy could not find a foothold in any major Yemeni city, despite all the possibilities that were available to it. Sanaa was lost then Aden, which is known how it was recovered from the Houthis and who recovered it. "Legitimacy" has never attempted to be in Taiz, the capital of the Shafi’i center and the largest Yemeni city.
At every stage, the political mind was absent from the actions of "legitimacy" that wanted to imitate Ali Abdullah Saleh's time, including some of his bad qualities, but in totally different circumstances. Every step that was taken was a disaster. How can the restructuring of the armed forces be described , including the Republican Guard, with one goal which is to get rid of any influence on Ali Abdullah Saleh or his son, Brigadier Ahmed within the army? Is the hatred against Ali Abdullah Saleh sufficient to justify the loss of any effectiveness of the Yemeni armed forces in confronting the Houthis?
Abd Rabbuh Mansour, who could not even visit the region in which he was born (Al-Wadea) in the southern governorate of Abyan, believed that revenge against Ali Abdullah Saleh could be the basis for a policy of some kind that would provide him with a distinct personality. He did not realize that revenge on someone, with his good and bad deeds, could not form the basis of a policy, especially when the internal and regional circumstances changed radically, and in light of Iran's success in laying its hand on Sana'a and part of Yemen.
“Legitimacy” bears a large part of the responsibility for Yemen reaching what it reached after the Houthis completed their control of Al-Jawf and their future focus on how to enter Marib.
It simply turns out that there is no room to rely on this “legitimacy” in any field. Not far away is the day when “legitimacy” may collude with the Houthis in order to remove the forces led by Brigadier Tariq Muhammad Abdullah Saleh from the outskirts of the port of Hodeidah overlooking the Red Sea.
There are other considerations that made Ali Mohsen Saleh, who is close to the Muslim Brotherhood, turn against his relative in the year 2011, and joins a group of personalities, including Hamid Abdullah bin Hussein al-Ahmar. These figures played their role in moving the street to get rid of Yemeni president who ruled for 33 years. Among these considerations is the belief that the Muslim Brotherhood has enough power to govern Yemen!
In any case, the Houthi takeover of Al-Jawf remains the beginning of a new stage in Yemen without this means that they are on their way to regaining the initiative nationwide. What must be recognized is that they possess a significant and effective military force in the absence of those who are willing to confront them. What must also be recognized is that there has been a significant change in Yemeni society, especially in the north. This change is characteristic of the weakness of the tribe. Tribes are no longer prepared to defend their elders as they have been in the past. There is no longer any significant influence for the Al-Ahmar family, mass elders, to name a few.
In clearer terms, Iran, to which the Houthis owe its utmost loyalty, was able to change the nature of Yemeni society in the north. This raises big questions regarding the Yemeni future and the formula that the country can settle down, one day, at a stage when the Houthis will take their normal size. This will happen for a very simple reason that is due to the fact that the entire Iranian expansionist project is in decline, on the one hand, and because the Houthis do not possess any political or economic project on the other hand. They have meaningless slogans that do not feed Yemenis or protect them from disease, nothing more.
Source: London's Al-Arab
