UN expert: The bad management of the Yemen war pushed the Houthis more to embrace Iran
English - Monday 13 February 2023 الساعة 05:42 pm
Aden, NewsYemen:
A former member of the international expert group on Yemen said that Iran is exploiting its influence and influence on the Houthi militia to prolong the conflict in the country.
The former UN expert, Gregory D. Johnson, predicted, in an analysis published by the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, that the evolving relationship between Iran and the Houthis would create problems to end the Yemeni conflict at a time when Saudi Arabia is trying to extract itself from the Yemen war.
He added, "The marked increase in Iranian arms shipments to the Houthis in the aftermath of a six-month ceasefire and relative lull in fighting is a matter of concern, and Iran may now have enough influence over the Houthis to effectively scuttle any long-term peace agreement, such as the current back-channel talks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.
He pointed out that "Iranian arms shipments to the Houthis are not new, and after Iran provided the Houthis with weapons, including components for ballistic missiles that allow the group to target Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Dubai, but there appears to be an increase in shipments recently."
He added, "One of the facts of the war in Yemen is that the longer the war lasts, the closer the Houthis get to Iran. This in itself is a tragic irony."
He explained, "The Saudi-led war pushed the Houthis further into the arms of Iran, as it was poorly planned and even worse managed."
He stated that between 2014 and 2017 - especially with the entry into force of United Nations sanctions against the Houthis - Iran began to provide more assistance to the Houthis, whether in the form of weapons or economic aid.
And he added, "That friendship blossomed into an alliance in 2017, when Iran began supporting the Houthis with ballistic missile components, drone technology, and Iranian and Hezbollah-affiliated military advisors."
"This was an important moment for the Houthis," the report said. When the group took control of Sana'a in 2014, it seized many Yemeni military depots, which included Scud missiles. These missiles had a range of about 185 miles, allowing the Houthis to fire them across Yemen's border with Saudi Arabia but it did not come close to threatening Riyadh.
He continued, "This changed when Iran began supplying the Houthis with long-range ballistic missiles with a range of more than 550 miles, the first of which was launched in May 2017, and overnight the Houthis were able to hit Riyadh."
By supplying the Houthis with these missiles, it allowed them to transfer the war to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and Iran demonstrated its importance to the Houthis, as well as its superior position within that coalition.
The Houthis take orders from Tehran
The former UN expert said that during most of the war, Yemen observers disputed allegations that the Houthis were a proxy for Iran, and it was often argued that the group did not take orders from Tehran. Instead, the group cooperated and made common cause by pursuing its own interests.
However, he added, “But the September 2019 attacks on the Saudi oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais indicated a changing reality, as the Houthis initially claimed responsibility for the attacks, and provided Iran with a cover of denial in the important early days. In the end, the United States, and later, the United Nations investigators, said that the Houthis have nothing to do with the attacks.
He continued, "The Houthis' apparent lie, which was discredited within weeks of the attacks, raised a key question: Why lie when you know your lie will not stand? Were the Houthis simply doing Iran a favor to pay for years of arms and aid shipments, or did the Houthi-Iranian relationship develop once again and evolved from an alliance into a state and an asset?
He believed that Saudi Arabia's search for a way out of Yemen may contribute to an increase in arms shipments from Iran to the Houthis, and this may complicate and delay any possible peace agreement.
And he went on: Iran's support for the Houthis has been a low-cost, high-reward policy for years, with Iran shipping some weapons and sending some advisors, plunging Saudi Arabia into a war it cannot win, costing it millions and ruining its reputation with US lawmakers.
But the biggest concern - says the former member of the UN Panel of Experts on Yemen - for policymakers is that the Houthis may not feel free to strike a deal with Saudi Arabia themselves, instead they may apply the terms through their contacts in Tehran, who are likely to add new demands in an attempt to impede peace in Yemen.
