Yemen is in a state of doubt.. Post-the truce dilemma scenarios
English - Saturday 08 October 2022 الساعة 09:01 amYemen again entered a period of doubt, after the end of the humanitarian truce that began on the second of last April, on the basis that it would last for two months and then was renewed in two stages, to a period of six months and expanded to include points of new agreement.
The Houthi group, the Iranian arm in Yemen, rejected the proposal of the Special Envoy of the United Nations Secretary-General for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, to extend the ceasefire, while on more than one occasion it threatened to resume missile attacks against Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
It stipulated that the salaries of civil, military and retired employees in the areas under its control, in northern Yemen, be paid "without discrimination", which means that the Yemeni government pays the salaries of fighters affiliated with the group.
The Houthis used the issue of salary payments to government sector employees, to win popular sympathy and thus mobilize fighters, while they refused to deposit the revenues of Hodeidah ports into an account in the Central Bank in Hodeidah from which salaries are paid, as stipulated in the Stockholm Agreement signed in 2018.
This hard-line stance does not seem new, as much as it is an extension of a tactic through which they obtained many gains that they were unable to achieve in the war previously, as the international community believes that acquiescing to their demands will encourage them to make concessions, but what happens is that the group becomes more stringent to obtain greater demands. .
The Houthis believe that they can obtain additional gains, especially with the clear desire of the Yemeni government camp and the international community for the continuation of the post-truce atmosphere in Yemen, a belief that was carried by their impossible demands, which are almost “concessions” that would be wrong to make in the absence of any organized peace talks.
Analysts attribute the failure to establish a ceasefire in Yemen to the imbalance on both sides of the war equation, as well as the lack of impartial UN monitoring mechanisms, starting with the Stockholm Agreement on the city of Hodeidah, which maintained the Houthis' superior military reality on the ground.
However, the intransigence in the Houthis' recent position cannot be separated from the calculations of the group's regional sponsor (Iran), with the negotiations to revive the nuclear agreement falter. It is more likely for many that Tehran is maneuvering from Yemen to improve its position on the nuclear table.
The United Nations is aware of the Iranian role in the war in Yemen and the level of Tehran's influence on the Houthi group, and this was clearly expressed by the intensification of UN officials' contact with the Iranians in the wake of the faltering renewal of the ceasefire.
Earlier this month, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Amir Abdollahian, pledged the permanent ceasefire in Yemen to "the complete abolition of the siege." This does not mean the lifting of the siege on Taiz, but rather the lifting of any restrictions on the movement of shipping, trade and fuel through the ports and airports under the control of the Houthis.
Postponing the inevitable confrontation
The end of the temporary truce with the faltering efforts of the international mediator to extend it, at least until the moment, opened the door to fears of a resurgence of military escalation in Yemen in a more severe manner, after a relative decline in the pace of armed fighting during the past six months.
There is an issue that deserves a lot of scrutiny, related to the position of the Houthis on the idea of peace. The impression that exists is that they are not really interested in continuing the truce or dealing seriously with any efforts for a negotiated settlement of the conflict, which has entered its eighth year. They believe that they are the stronger party and that the war should not end at this point.
The former US ambassador to Yemen, Gerald Firestein, was fairly candid when he said in an analysis published by Foreign Policy that "the Houthis themselves have never claimed any interest in a peace process or negotiated settlement nor actively seek to participate in de-escalation efforts." .
Perhaps the failure to reach agreement on simple humanitarian measures such as easing the years-long siege of Taiz makes it difficult to be optimistic about the Houthis' willingness to compromise on the core issues of power-sharing, governance, and implementing the policy of a regime that all Yemenis can ratify, Feierstein said.
The Houthis are also betting on continuing the war to increase their ability to control state resources and illegal taxes, and more economic empowerment that maintains a higher level of content for their movement with the status quo.
Until the moment, it is difficult to predict the final outcomes with the continuation of intensive international contacts to convince the Houthis and their successor Iran with a "satisfactory proposal" to extend the truce, but in the event of a deadlock, the war will witness a new round of military confrontations more fierce than before.
This reinforces that the United Nations and the international community do not have real pressure tools on the Houthis and have not been able to persuade them to calm down. Therefore, a return to the war track is a possibility in any case, whether after weeks or months, as the Houthis' strategic and declared goal is to control Yemen.
A truce is dying from the day she was born
UN officials say the truce has allowed for a reduction in fighting and for some measures to be taken to ease the hardships of the people's living conditions. Facing one of the world's worst humanitarian crises.
But the constant in Yemen is that it (the armistice) benefited the Houthi group, while it achieved nothing for the Yemenis and did not make any change in reality, especially with the Houthis’ refusal to open the main roads to the city of Taiz, which has been closed since the end of 2015, although the agreement required only two things from them: a cease-fire , which was partially implemented; Already stopped the attacks of suicide marches and ballistic missiles outside the borders. And open the crossings, which is not done.
Despite the military violations that accompanied the implementation of the truce since its announcement until its expiration on the second of October, and with the failure to implement crucial provisions by the Houthis, the international mood continues to push for the extension and expansion of the truce.
At a time when the international envoy believes that the armistice has succeeded in reducing the military escalation to the least possible extent during the past six months. For him and the international community, this issue remains the most important point, in contrast to the Houthis' commitment to implement their commitments under the UN-sponsored agreement.