Redeployment in the West Coast .. in the balance of profit and loss
English - Monday 15 November 2021 الساعة 07:45 am
Hodeidah, NewsYemen, private:
The political debate about the reasons and motives for the withdrawals or the "repositioning" that the joint forces carried out suddenly on the West Coast did not abruptly subside on Thursday and Friday, despite issuing an official statement in which it tried to explain the reasons and motives for what happened.
There is a controversy between the absolute support for the move and those who attacked it sharply and described it as treason, especially the "Brotherhood movement", which found it an opportunity to undermine the forces of the West Coast, and those who tried to explain it through the theory of "conspiracy" and put it in the context of a "political overlay" between regional and international powers to end the war in To whom.
Absent from this controversy was an attempt to explain what happened by placing it in the context of the war scene in Yemen in general, with reading the military map before and after the withdrawal or repositioning, and evaluating this in terms of militarily profit and loss.
Although all of this was summed up in one paragraph in the joint forces’ statement, in which it said that it saw “the mistake of remaining besieged in defensive barricades, forbidden by war, by an international decision, while the various fronts require support in all forms, including: opening other fronts to stop the Houthis on their own.”
The first sentence of this phrase depicts the "military impasse" in which the joint forces have fallen since the signing of the (Stockholm) Agreement in late 2018, and the cost incurred to maintain their positions east and south of Hodeidah since then, three years ago.
After the liberation of Al-Khoukha in late 2017, the joint forces pushed within 10 months about 100 km until they were less than 5 km away from the last port of Hodeidah to the north, which means that the Houthi militias were completely besieged inside.
The rush of the joint forces came at the time on the momentum of accelerated victories that quickly inspired the resolution of the battle in the city of Hodeidah, despite the fatal military mistake they made in their rush along the coastline without incursion and securing their rush by controlling a series of small towns beyond Hais and parallel to its line.
This error or impasse was manifested with the signing of the Sweden agreement in late 2018, which stopped military operations on the western coast completely, which made the fronts of the joint forces after Al-Khokha to the outskirts of the city of Hodeidah at the mercy of cutting its supply line at any moment by the Houthi militia
With the passage of time - after the agreement - the cost incurred by the joint forces increased on a daily basis to repel the violations of the Houthi militia, which did not abide by the Sweden agreement, with the legitimacy adherence to the Sweden agreement and refusing to drop it despite the repeated demands from the leaders of the forces in the west coast.
The start of the series of collapse of the legitimate fronts came in mid-2019 to double the danger to the forces of the West Coast, after these collapses worked to strengthen the Houthi militias financially with weapons and equipment that they gained from these fronts and psychologically by acquiring more fighters. Marib city.
The seriousness of the scene in Marib and the possibility of oil and gas sources falling into the hands of the Houthi group, coincided with threats to Houthi leaders to expand and expand towards the rest of the liberated areas, especially the western coast, which is - militarily - the easiest front for the Houthi militia, given the positioning of the joint forces along the coast line in a narrow axis that does not Its width exceeds in parts only 5 km, which makes it easy to cut the supply lines of the advanced fronts and separate them into two parts.
This scenario makes the survival of the joint forces in their current position a real danger - in the event the Houthi militias resolve the battle in Marib - which means that the Houthi militia will throw all its weight towards the West Coast front and will put the joint forces in confrontation with militias capable of mobilizing hundreds or thousands of fighters without care. The extent of the loss in their ranks, and we enter a war decided by the Houthis in time and place, while the joint forces remain bound in Stockholm. At worst, you will enter into a long and costly attrition battle.
The entry of the joint forces in this scene threatens with serious repercussions, given that the majority of these forces deployed on the advanced fronts on the western coast are the Southern Giants Brigades, and their entry into such a drain will be met with political and societal anger in the south for refusing to make costly sacrifices in a futile battle and on “northern” land. .
What will enhance this anger in the southern street is the danger that threatens the southern governorates with the expansion of the Houthi militia, specifically in Shabwa, where the militias took control in late September of three districts without a fight. In Marib, this means that it will acquire huge financial resources that will enable it to mobilize thousands of fighters and finance a violent round of war.
On the other hand, the statement of the joint forces is - implicitly - a declaration of the termination of the Sweden agreement, as he said that it "implemented the decision to evacuate the areas governed by the (Sweden) agreement, because those areas are governed by an international agreement that keeps them demilitarized."
The evacuation of these areas by the joint forces is an implementation by them of all the terms of the agreement, and it throws the ball into the goal of the United Nations and the world to compel the Houthis to implement it on their part, which is almost impossible, while any Houthi folly in moving towards the concentration of the joint forces now practically means the end of the agreement and also makes The options for responding to it are open, including to advance again towards the city of Hodeidah.
Overall, this step allows for open military options for the joint forces during the advanced period, free from any international restrictions, away from the Sweden agreement, and perhaps also away from the city of Hodeidah.
