British report: Yemen's war will continue because "peace" is against the interest of the Hadi government and the Houthis
English - Monday 02 August 2021 الساعة 11:07 am
Aden, NewsYemen:
The British Defense and Security magazine said that the US President Joe Biden's administration's cancellation of listing the Houthis on the terrorist list without extracting any concessions from them is linked to the risks of showing weakness and chaos among the allies supporting the government of interim Yemeni President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi.
And the magazine considered, in a recent report, that the American restrictions on arms sales to the Arab coalition, led by Saudi Arabia, would cause the Houthis to become more emboldened and reduce the reasons that pushed them to the negotiating table, especially since they have an advantage on the ground.
The report said that the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen began on March 25, 2015 in response to a request from the internationally recognized Hadi government. Therefore, imposing restrictions such as halting US arms sales would punish the party with the most legitimacy in front of the international community.
He added: "It appears to be biased towards one party in the civil war, not the two parties, not even the party that is already facing sanctions imposed against it by the United Nations."
Commenting on this blanket ban on offensive arms sales to Saudi Arabia, Michael Knights, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: “For years, we have told the Saudis to distinguish themselves in their campaign. But we have just blocked their first-ever deal to buy 250-barrel bombs. "So they have to instead use their massive 1,000-pound bombs when hitting a small target like a person or a motorbike."
At this point in the conflict, according to Knights, the only region still witnessing Saudi airstrikes is Marib, which is an oil hub, which has been targeted in the past few years by a continuous stream of attacks by Houthi forces. Given the low frequency of strikes, previous munitions sales to Saudi Arabia during the Trump and Obama eras appear sufficient to allow it to continue its current level of support in the near future.
He said the sanctions simply pushed the Saudis to buy weapons elsewhere. While the United States and European countries such as Germany, Italy and Belgium place restrictions on arms sales in Yemen, the United Kingdom exported £1.4 billion worth of arms to Saudi Arabia during the third quarter of 2020 alone.
He continued, "Even with these countries imposing restrictions on arms sales, this would not greatly hinder the Saudis." They can also bring in the guided bomb system from the UAE, and buy old stockpiles such as 1,000-2,000-pound bombs, and older equipment from Jordan.”
Knights said that although some elements at the American political level suggest threatening sanctions against countries that continue to sell weapons used in Yemen, this measure is not likely to garner broad support, as the American decision was not taken with the purpose of ending the war in Yemen, but it is related. greater the US desire to "keep its hands clean".
The Houthi forces received significant support and advice from Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah. By resorting to light infantry tactics, the Houthis appeared in the form of an effective raiding force, which could compensate for their air fragility by dividing their forces into small pockets, a tactic that proved very effective for them in mountainous areas, and in defensive positions in the face of superior forces, according to Knights.
"They are also very good at what I can describe as 'preparing the battlefield with accurate fires,'" he said, citing the attack that targeted the Yemeni government at Aden airport. And he added, "They always carry out attacks against leading figures using precise drones that the Iranians helped develop, or through the use of precise tactical missile systems such as the Badr-1."
Therefore, when you put all this in the face of demoralized and poorly armed Yemeni forces, this usually represents an advantage in the Houthis' interest in this war.
At this point in the conflict, the Knights say, the Saudi air force is the main obstacle stopping the Houthis from seizing Marib. But US arms restrictions raise questions about how long the Saudis will want to continue.
Peace against the interests of Hadi and the Houthis
Knights believes that "there are two people in the world who have really tried very actively to end the war in Yemen, one is the former UN envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths and the other is the US envoy Tim Lenderking", both of whom have worked closely with the Saudi government in the peace process - Griffiths since February 2018, and Lenderking since February 2021.
Both were closely associated with negotiations in Riyadh, Tehran and Muscat, where the Omanis played the role of mediator between the coalition and the Houthis. On a superficial level, these talks yielded little progress and hope, as evidenced by Griffith's latest briefing before the Security Council... At this point, according to Knights, Saudi Arabia is not a major obstacle at the end of the war, having reduced its contribution there over the past few years. past. The main issue is that Yemen's many internal factions are too entrenched in the conflict to allow it to end, whether because of the Houthis' current supremacy, or because of the aid and international support that the Hadi government enjoys.
He added, "A post-war settlement could rob both sides of the advantages they now enjoy. The Hadi government's mandate simply expires the moment the war ends. And what would make the Houthis end the fighting? If you're just giving them carrots without a stick, why?" Will they stop if any compromise makes them lose?"
Dr. Sanam Vakil, a veteran scholar and deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, said, “I think there is a kind of a bipartisan shift on American politics. More important than that is that the war has not achieved its goals of eliminating terrorism or addressing influence. “On top of that, of course, we have seen a growing humanitarian crisis exacerbated by the Corona pandemic,” she added.
At the same time, Faikl says, “there is growing anti-Saudi influence in Congress, for reasons including human rights violations against Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and his alleged involvement in the death of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
"With the United States continuing to engage in the Iraq war and its ongoing withdrawal from Afghanistan, the appetite for direct American involvement in foreign conflicts appears to be at an all-time low," she said.
Vakil believes that "President Biden implemented this shift in fulfillment of his campaign promises, as well as in order to withdraw any US military commitments towards what are seen as perpetual wars in the Middle East."
Even if the decision to stop arms sales does not significantly affect Saudi Arabia's efforts in the war, it will likely lead to increased perceptions of the illegitimacy of its involvement in the war, giving a boost to the Houthi forces, similar to what previous attempts to curb foreign involvement in the war have done.
"The dynamics of the conflict are very hot and on the rise," according to Vakil, who continued: "Despite the fact that they received some positive signals from the Biden administration - such as the Trump administration's de-designation of them as a foreign terrorist organization - the Houthis continued their advance towards Marib and are trying to expand their control on the ground."
The question, then, is how can peace be achieved if it is against the interests of both parties, especially when each side has multiple conflicting interests? According to Vakil.
At the same time, the internal and external players feed each other. Iran, for example, in Vakil's viewpoint, has always exaggerated its level of control over the Houthis, who are hardly one homogeneous group.
"Resorting to Iran to control the Houthis and asking them to curb missile attacks against Saudi Arabia does not necessarily guarantee that this will be implemented," Vakil explained. She added, "Both conflicts have to be resolved simultaneously. A mechanism or path must be found to coordinate the discourse between external actors, with simultaneous management of internal civil war dynamics. No meaningful peace or division of government can ultimately be achieved without internal acceptance and peace."
